Southern Alberta economies heavily exposed to tariffs

Posted on February 20, 2025 by Ryan Dahlman

By Collin Gallant
Southern Alberta Newspapers

Chambers of Commerce in Canada are highlighting the potential impact of U.S. tariff threats at a city and county level, with economies in southern Alberta cities showing high levels of exposure.

Figures released Feb. 12 show Calgary as No. 2 on a list of most-affected municipalities, should blanket tariffs be applied to Canadian goods imported into the United States.

Also ranking high are obvious locations – steel- and auto-manufacturing centres like Hamilton and Windsor, Ont. – but Lethbridge, at No. 10, is considered a top city vulnerable to decline in international trade.

That is due to cattle trade and feedlots in southwest Alberta, which act as a bellwether for livestock trade in Western Canada and areas like Medicine Hat, officials with Southeast Alberta Chamber of Commerce told Southern Alberta Newspapers.

“When you look at what Canada or Alberta’s main exports (to the U.S.) are – livestock, energy, chemicals – we have all that here, and that’s typically what our figures will be,” said executive director Lisa Dressler. “There’s a direct correlation to southeast Alberta.”

The local chamber’s area of operation includes roughly 400,000 head of cattle, 1 million acres of cultivated cropland, along with at least 30 member businesses involved in manufacturing and exports to the U.S.

“We have one member who sends four or five truckloads each day to the United States, and that will have a huge effect,” said Dressler, whose group is now connecting with members to ascertain general and anecdotal information about the potential effect of a trade dispute, to use in the Canadian Chamber’s information campaign.

It plans to open up dialogue with the American Chamber of Commerce in hopes of reversing a threat of 25 per cent tariffs from the U.S. federal administration, that business groups say will raise costs and hurt the economy and consumers on both side of the border.

Beyond making a stronger argument, Dressler said the local office is also promoting programs to aid export-dependent businesses, and is encouraging members to consider alternate supply and sales markets.

“We know that we need to diversify our markets more globally,” she said.

The Canadian study considered Lethbridge due to its status as a major municipal census area, which includes the famed “feedlot alley” where livestock is gathered for export.

Red Deer and Edmonton appear on the ranking of 41 Canadian cities at Nos. 21 and 24, respectively, and Regina was No. 37.

No. 1 St. John, N.B. is home to the Irving Oil Refinery, which ships 80 per cent of its production south.

Closer to Medicine Hat, major plant operator Methanex has said that only a small amount of its global production is shipped to the U.S. from Canada.

CF Industries, which operates Canada’s largest fertilizer plant in Medicine Hat, is set to release its next earnings report Feb. 19 from their head office in Illinois.

That state ranks as Alberta’s top trading state, ahead of Texas and Washington State, according to the Canadian Chamber study. Deliveries included chemical and agrifood products, but also petroleum delivery via pipeline networks to the U.S. midwest.

Overall, Alberta’s trade with the U.S. totals $188 billion each year.

“Tariffs are a lose-lose,” said Stephen Tapp, the Canada Chamber’s chief economist in a release. “They would raise business costs, reduce North America’s international competitiveness and ultimately increase consumer prices at a time when Canadians and Americans are both struggling with significant affordability challenges.”

Will Lowe, chair of the National Cattle Feeders’ Association, said earlier this month the two-way trade of live cattle is built into the system and benefits U.S. and Canadian operators and consumers.

“The impact of this tariff on cattle producers will be felt immediately and severely,” said Lowe. “When dealing with live animals you are not able to pivot quickly, and this tariff could cripple the world-renowned beef industry on both sides of the border.”