Alberta small business confidence plummets to lowest recorded level amid trade war with United States

Southern Alberta Newspapers

Alberta’s small business confidence in the long term plunged by over 33 points to 24.1, its lowest level since the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) began tracking optimism over 20 years ago, according to the latest Business Barometer®.

Long term 12-month confidence has fallen below previous low points for small business, including the shutdowns during the pandemic and the recession in 2008/09, something also reflected in all other Canadian provinces. Meanwhile, the three-month confidence index for Alberta stands at 31.8 points after dropping nearly 18 points.

“Tariffs have raised costs for exporters while reciprocal tariffs from Canada have increased prices for importers and consumers,” said Bradlee Whidden, senior policy analyst for Western Canada. “This extra cost makes imported U.S. goods more expensive and significantly raises the cost of locally produced goods that rely on U.S.-sourced materials, impacting both consumers and businesses.”

The trade war has contributed to ongoing constraints on sales and production growth, with small businesses citing insufficient demand as a top challenge, as tariffs strain consumers’ budgets. Governments need to address major input cost constraints to help offset this impact, with small businesses citing tax and regulatory costs, insurance costs and electricity costs as the most damaging.

“The pandemic, while extremely damaging, was seen as a more temporary pain period, while uncertainty and high costs regarding trade with our closest neighbour may become a new normal” added Whidden. “This turmoil reflects the need to reduce the cost of doing business by making it easier to trade within Canada, something that has been unnecessarily burdensome for decades.”