Separatists gain ground in new poll

Posted on October 16, 2025 by Ryan Dahlman

By Alexandra Noad
Southern Alberta Newspapers
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

According to a survey by Cardinal Research on 2,626 randomly selected voters shows the separatist Republican Party of Alberta (RPA) in third place behind the UCP and NDP respectively.

The Cardinal Research website says the RPA is cutting into the UCP vote share in rural Alberta while leapfrogging over both the Liberal Party of Alberta and the newly renamed Alberta Progressive Conservative party.

Cameron Davies, leader of the RPA, says this is the first time the party has been included in a survey, and its numbers are a sign of optimism.

“What it shows is our message is resonating with Albertans, we’re getting out there, we’re doing the work…we’re talking to Albertans about the issues that matter to them.”

How those numbers would translate into actual votes, however, is up for debate. Trevor Harrison, a retired professor of political sociology at the University of Lethbridge, points out that the survey of 2,000 Albertans isn’t the best predictor of voter behaviour, especially in the event of separation.

“There’s always a percentage of people in the province who are disgruntled and would like some idea of separating and having their own way, but it still is a pretty small percentage.”

Both Harrison and Davies agree that the UCP’s Alberta Next town halls have contributed to the ideology of separatism, and both pointed out that blaming Ottawa isn’t the answer.

Davies says the nine demands the UCP made to the federal government don’t actually cover the constitutional inequalities Alberta is facing, but the conversations being brought up are raising awareness of the issues and sparking conversations.

“There’s an increased awareness and certainly the conversation on Albertan Independence has had more people take a closer look that and I think that’s a positive.”

Harrison points out there is a major flaw in the Alberta Next meetings because it’s impossible for Alberta to have sovereignty while still being a part of Canada.

“Effectively what (the UCP) are really saying is ‘we want to be our own country because you can’t be sovereign… within a united country.’”

Separatist movements have received a lot of pushback from Indigenous communities due to their treaties with the Crown, which were signed prior to Alberta becoming a province. Davies says the opposition is coming from is a loud minority of mostly chiefs, who receive money from Ottawa.

“What you don’t hear and what you don’t see, are the everyday Albertan First Nations who don’t see the benefit of staying within Canada. They understand the abusive and toxic relationship with not only the Crown, but also with Ottawa, and they see an opportunity within an independent Alberta to finally have a seat at the table and be treated as every other Albertan is treated.”

If a referendum were to occur, the ARP would then negotiate with Ottawa regarding the Treaty lands, says Davies.

Harrison says it’s much more complicated than just negotiating with the Crown about the land.

“One of the big (complications of separating) is certainly with the treaties… they were signed with Canada, not with Alberta, so if Alberta can imagine being separate, does that mean some of the Indigenous nations of the province can also imagine being separate (from Alberta)?”