Danielle Smith guesses cost of separation would be $400B

Posted on July 2, 2026 by Ryan Dahlman

By Zoe Mason
Southern Alberta Newspapers

Premier Danielle Smith says she hopes to have an estimate by August on costs associated with potential separation from Canada.

According to Smith’s rough estimate, those costs could total $400 billion.

At a news conference earlier this month, Smith told reporters she has asked new Finance Minister Jason Nixon to prepare a costing document outlining expenses that an independent Alberta would have to incur.

“I think it’s responsible for us to be very forthright about the costs associated with what’s being proposed here so people can make an important decision, and I hope that decision is to remain,” said Smith.

Initial costs highlighted by the premier include inheriting Alberta’s share of the national debt, which she pegged at around $170 billion, plus around $10 billion annually in interest.

Alberta would need to establish a national defence, which Smith estimates at $25 billion in startup costs, and replace old-age security and child tax benefits for another $10 to $15 billion.

Other expenses named by the premier include border control, establishing trade agreements and trade offices around the world and building the necessary infrastructure to collect and distribute employment insurance.

“It’s a pretty extensive list that has probably hundreds of billions of dollars worth of startup costs, and people need to understand what it would be to set up a fully functional national government from scratch,” she said.

Smith also pointed to the trade negotiations with the United States as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement approaches its first joint review July 1. Up to this point, CUSMA has protected the majority of Canadian exports against crushing U.S. tariffs.

“You don’t get grandfathered in on those,” said Smith. “Presumably, we’d have tariffs on all our goods that are being traded immediately.”

The premier says she hopes to have a comprehensive costing document complete well before the referendum on Oct. 19.